Executive Summary
Greece is back in the news because the government is running out of cash and is close to default.
We believe Greece and its creditors will eventually reach agreement, because default would
probably be in nobody’s interest. That said, the probability of Greek default and potential exit
from the Eurozone, although less than 50 percent, is probably higher now than it has ever been.
There are some backstops now, which did not exist a few years ago, that should prevent contagion
from spreading to other European economies. That said, nobody really knows what would happen
if indeed the Hellenic Republic defaulted and exited the Eurozone. Although the probability of a
“train wreck” in Europe appears to be low, it is probably more than just an insignificant tail risk
that investors can blithely ignore. In our view, readers should keep a close eye on near-term
developments in Europe.
Will the Greek Government and the Eurogroup Reach Agreement?
Greece has been in and out of the headlines ever since its government and the Eurogroup agreed
on February 20 to a four-month extension of the country’s current (i.e., its second) bailout
program.1 Thus far, the Greek government and the Eurogroup have failed to come to terms on the
conditions under which the Eurogroup will release the next tranche, which is worth €7.2 billion,
of the €165 billion bailout program that has been in place since 2012. Consequently, the cash
balances of the Greek government are dwindling. Although the government probably has enough
cash on hand to make a scheduled €768 million loan repayment to the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) in May, it likely will not be able to come up with the €1.6 billion it needs to repay the
IMF in June without a fresh infusion of cash (Figure 1). If not, the government of the Hellenic
Republic would then be in default.
We believe the Greek government and the Eurogroup will eventually reach agreement, thereby
precluding default. In our view, the Greek government will ultimately come up with enough
concrete reforms to convince the Eurogroup to release the next tranche of the bailout program
and to begin negotiations on the terms of a third agreement. Neither the Greek government nor
the Eurogroup has an interest in a default in our view. Default, which likely would be followed by
Greek exit from the Eurozone, would most likely cause the Greek economy to weaken even
further. In short, in our opinion, default and exit from the Eurozone clearly is not in the interest
of the Hellenic Republic.2
We believe a Greek default is also not in the interests of other European countries for a number of
reasons. First, officials from other countries would be in the uncomfortable position of explaining
to their voters why more than €300 billion worth of debt that Greece owes collectively to the
other 18 members of the euro area could now be essentially worthless.3 Second, Greek exit from
the Eurozone, should it occur, would represent the most significant setback in the process of
European integration that has been in place for about 60 years. Third, an implosion of the Greek
economy would likely lead to heightened social instability in Greece, a country that sits on
Europe’s southern flank
That said, there are political constraints on both sides that could preclude a deal. The Greek
economy is roughly 25 percent smaller today than it was at its peak in 2007, and the
unemployment rate has climbed to more than 25 percent (Figure 2). Greek politicians have
blamed many of the economy’s woes on the austerity measures that have been in place for five
years. The government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was elected in January with the mandate
to roll back some of these austerity measures, and the government may feel limited in its ability to
make concessions to the Eurogroup.
Politicians in other European economies have their own political constraints as well, because
many Europeans do not believe their governments should extend more aid to the Hellenic
Republic. Voters could subsequently cause headaches for governments that are seen as being
“soft” on Greece. A poll conducted in March found that 52 percent of Germans thought that
Greece should leave the Eurozone, with only 40 percent responding that the country should
remain in the euro area. As we discuss below, some officials are willing to contemplate Greek
default and exit from the Eurozone because, in their view, other European economies are now
largely insulated from the negative financial market effects that those events would previously
have caused.
In our view, the risk that the parties fail to reach agreement is not insignificant. The probability of
a Greek default and exit from the euro area, although in our view not more than 50 percent,
seems to be higher today than at any time during the 16 years that the Eurozone has been in existence.
Backstops Impart More Stability to the Eurozone
Financial market tension related to the European sovereign crisis has waxed and waned for more
than five years. Between 2010 and 2012, government bond yields in Italy and Spain moved higher
when investors feared Greek default and a Eurozone exit at that time (Figure 3). Stock markets in
Italy and Spain also moved lower with their Hellenic counterpart during those years as well
(Figure 4). Asset prices in the so-called “peripheral” European economies (i.e., Greece, Ireland
Italy, Portugal and Spain) moved higher starting in July 2012 when European Central Bank
President Draghi said “the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro.”
However, as the probability of Greek default and exit from the Eurozone has risen over the past
year or so, the correlation between asset prices in Greece and the other peripheral European
economies has broken down. Although the yield on the 10-year Greek government bond has risen
about 600 bps since September, yields on comparable securities in the other peripheral European
economies have continued to move lower. The Greek stock market has dropped more than
30 percent since September, but the equity markets in Italy and Spain have registered strong
gains over that period.
A few years ago Europe did not have many backstops in place to help prevent contagion from
spreading from Greece to other countries in the European periphery. Today, however, the
€500 billion European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which was established in 2012 to provide
financial assistance to euro area member states, is capitalized and operational. European
peripheral economies could seek support from the ESM if a Greek default would make it
onerously expensive for them to issue their own securities in sovereign bond markets. In
March 2015, the ECB started a program of sovereign bond buying as part of its monetary policy.
Presumably, the ECB would ramp up its purchases of Italian and Spanish government bonds if
their yields were to shoot higher in the event of a default by Greece. In other words, the Eurozone
now has some backstops in place to minimize contagion to other countries. These backstops have
given some European officials the incentive to pursue a hard line in their negotiations with the
Greek government because they believe the Eurozone could withstand a Greek default and exit.
Would Financial Market Fallout Be Limited to Greece?
But is the Eurozone really immune to contagion from Greece? Nobody really knows for sure. A
Greek default and exit from the Eurozone, should it occur, would establish a precedent: Eurozone
membership would no longer be irrevocable. Recognizing that highly indebted governments in
Italy, Portugal and Spain could also default and exit the Eurozone at some point, owners of longdated
sovereign bonds of these countries may require higher yields to compensate them for the
higher risk that could be perceived to be embedded in these securities. As we showed in an earlier
report, debt sustainability can be adversely affected by an increase in borrowing costs.4 A vicious
circle of higher borrowing costs, deterioration in debt sustainability dynamics, further increase in
borrowing costs, etc. could be put into train.
Most of the financial obligations of the Greek government are held by multilateral institutions such as the ECB, the EFSF and the IMF. Private sector investors, especially foreign investors, own very little Greek government debt today. However, the private sector has significant exposure to the Spanish and Italian governments. For example, Spanish financial institutions have €640 billion worth of exposure to the general government in Spain while Italian financial institutions own nearly €500 billion worth of Italian government bonds.5 Default by the Spanish and/or Italian governments would lead to significant financial losses in their respective banking sectors that could have depressing effects on European economic activity.6 In that event, financial markets outside of Europe could experience significant volatility.
We think that the probability of a general financial crisis sweeping through Europe in the foreseeable future is low. First, Greece would need to default, which as we discuss above, is not the most likely outcome, in our view. Then, contagion would need to spread to other peripheral European countries. Moreover, the ESM and ECB backstops would need to be overwhelmed by investor fears about the debt dynamics of the Spanish, Italian and Portuguese governments. Although the probability of a “train wreck” in Europe appears to be low, it is probably more than just an insignificant tail risk that investors can blithely ignore. In our view, readers should keep a close eye on near-term developments in Europe.
Conclusion
Greece is back in the spotlight because the government is getting dangerously close to running out of cash. Unlike the previous two Greek crises, there has been very little reaction thus far in financial markets in other peripheral European economies. European Monetary Union (EMU) is more stable today than it was a few years ago because European policymakers have put some backstops in place that, in theory, should keep contagion from spreading from one country to others. Although the probability of Greek default and exit from the Eurozone seems higher today than it was during the previous two crises, the probability that “Grexit” causes widespread financial market turbulence in other European economies appears to be lower than previously.
However, Greek default and exit from the Eurozone, should it occur, would be a watershed moment for EMU. Sovereign bond yields in other peripheral economies likely would rise in a kneejerk reaction, but the ESM backstop, not to mention the likely reaction of the ECB, probably would prevent the crisis from spreading in a sustainable fashion. That said, it is impossible to know exactly how investors will react. In our view, developments in Europe over the next few weeks warrant attention by most investors.
Wednesday 29 April 2015
Well Fargo (wed 29 Apr 2015)-FOMC: No New Signals on Rate Hike Timing
Well Fargo
FOMC: No New Signals on Rate Hike Timing
While acknowledging the weak first quarter performance, Fed officials maintained the current policy stance at the April FOMC meeting. Incoming Q2 data will take on greater importance to the timing of a Fed rate hike
Downbeat Q1 Assessment
As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
maintained its federal funds target rate range while keeping the forward
rate guidance language very similar to the March statement. The tone of the
Fed’s current economic assessment was clearly more cautious, mirroring
the disappointing Q1 GDP report received earlier in the day. The Fed’s
cautiousness was evident across the board, with more somber assessments
on the labor market, household spending, business fixed investment, the
housing market and exports compared to the March statement. The Fed
acknowledged that transitory factors, in part, slowed growth during the
winter months and, therefore, implies officials anticipate a rebound in
economic activity in the current quarter. On the price front, the Fed stated
inflation “continued to run below the Committee’s longer-run objective”
with lower energy prices and non-energy import prices cited as reasons for
the low run rate.
In regards to the paragraph on the monetary policy outlook, no significant
changes were made as officials still believe the U.S. economy is, on balance,
moving closer to the day where a rate hike will be considered. For that
consideration, the FOMC reaffirmed the need for further improvement in
the labor market and to be “reasonably confident” that inflation will move
back to its 2 percent longer-run target over the medium term.
Conviction of Outlook Still Key to Rate Hike Timing
At the March FOMC meeting, Fed officials appeared to have had significant
concern that inflation was too low. Since the March meeting, the modest
pickup in core consumer and producer inflation has likely alleviated some
of those concerns and turned attention back toward growth prospects. As
such, this morning’s weak Q1 GDP report may have increased concerns for
some Fed officials over the anticipated second quarter rebound and the
trend rate of growth over the medium-term forecast horizon.
Fed officials will want to see the next few months’ indicator performance to
better assess the underlying growth trend following the weak first quarter
and to gauge whether their outlook of firming GDP growth for the
remainder of this year and next remains intact. Shaking off the transitory
factors of winter weather and the port disruptions, we believe a moderate
rebound is in store for the second quarter as growth in consumer spending
and business fixed investment should pick back up. We doubt there is
enough time for the economy to rebound in a convincing enough way for
the Fed to move in June, but there is still plenty of runway left between now
and September. The critical question for the Fed now is how much of the
first quarter’s weakness was transitory and how much is longer lasting. This
puts more weight on upcoming data, which will soften or harden the Fed’s
resolve.
FOMC: No New Signals on Rate Hike Timing
While acknowledging the weak first quarter performance, Fed officials maintained the current policy stance at the April FOMC meeting. Incoming Q2 data will take on greater importance to the timing of a Fed rate hike
Downbeat Q1 Assessment
As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
maintained its federal funds target rate range while keeping the forward
rate guidance language very similar to the March statement. The tone of the
Fed’s current economic assessment was clearly more cautious, mirroring
the disappointing Q1 GDP report received earlier in the day. The Fed’s
cautiousness was evident across the board, with more somber assessments
on the labor market, household spending, business fixed investment, the
housing market and exports compared to the March statement. The Fed
acknowledged that transitory factors, in part, slowed growth during the
winter months and, therefore, implies officials anticipate a rebound in
economic activity in the current quarter. On the price front, the Fed stated
inflation “continued to run below the Committee’s longer-run objective”
with lower energy prices and non-energy import prices cited as reasons for
the low run rate.
In regards to the paragraph on the monetary policy outlook, no significant
changes were made as officials still believe the U.S. economy is, on balance,
moving closer to the day where a rate hike will be considered. For that
consideration, the FOMC reaffirmed the need for further improvement in
the labor market and to be “reasonably confident” that inflation will move
back to its 2 percent longer-run target over the medium term.
Conviction of Outlook Still Key to Rate Hike Timing
At the March FOMC meeting, Fed officials appeared to have had significant
concern that inflation was too low. Since the March meeting, the modest
pickup in core consumer and producer inflation has likely alleviated some
of those concerns and turned attention back toward growth prospects. As
such, this morning’s weak Q1 GDP report may have increased concerns for
some Fed officials over the anticipated second quarter rebound and the
trend rate of growth over the medium-term forecast horizon.
Fed officials will want to see the next few months’ indicator performance to
better assess the underlying growth trend following the weak first quarter
and to gauge whether their outlook of firming GDP growth for the
remainder of this year and next remains intact. Shaking off the transitory
factors of winter weather and the port disruptions, we believe a moderate
rebound is in store for the second quarter as growth in consumer spending
and business fixed investment should pick back up. We doubt there is
enough time for the economy to rebound in a convincing enough way for
the Fed to move in June, but there is still plenty of runway left between now
and September. The critical question for the Fed now is how much of the
first quarter’s weakness was transitory and how much is longer lasting. This
puts more weight on upcoming data, which will soften or harden the Fed’s
resolve.
Dalian Wanda--Wang Jianlin’王健林 and son 王思聪 Wáng Sī Cōng
王健林1954-10-24甲午,甲戌,癸丑
2010/20運印庚辰官
2016丙申--財丙坐比劫(癸=子-申子辰=比劫)
2017丁酉冲運合庚辰
2018戊戌合刑日柱
http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%8E%8B%E5%81%A5%E6%9E%97
son 王思聪88-1-3丁卯,壬子,丁巳-運07/17財庚戌傷
2016丙申-劫財坐財
2017丁酉-比肩坐偏財
http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%8E%8B%E6%80%9D%E8%81%AA
2016-2018??
http://www2.hkej.com/instantnews/china/article/1041991/%E7%B4%90%E6%99%82%E7%88%86%E8%90%AC%E9%81%94%E8%88%87%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E6%AC%8A%E8%B2%B4%E6%9C%89%E5%8D%83%E7%B5%B2%E8%90%AC%E7%B8%B7%E9%97%9C%E4%BF%82
http://sinosphere.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/04/28/a-blurry-trail-of-investors-outlines-the-fortune-of-asias-richest-man/
HK:3699 Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Co. Ltd. (HKG)
2010/20運印庚辰官
2016丙申--財丙坐比劫(癸=子-申子辰=比劫)
2017丁酉冲運合庚辰
2018戊戌合刑日柱
http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%8E%8B%E5%81%A5%E6%9E%97
son 王思聪88-1-3丁卯,壬子,丁巳-運07/17財庚戌傷
2016丙申-劫財坐財
2017丁酉-比肩坐偏財
http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%8E%8B%E6%80%9D%E8%81%AA
2016-2018??
http://www2.hkej.com/instantnews/china/article/1041991/%E7%B4%90%E6%99%82%E7%88%86%E8%90%AC%E9%81%94%E8%88%87%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E6%AC%8A%E8%B2%B4%E6%9C%89%E5%8D%83%E7%B5%B2%E8%90%AC%E7%B8%B7%E9%97%9C%E4%BF%82
http://sinosphere.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/04/28/a-blurry-trail-of-investors-outlines-the-fortune-of-asias-richest-man/
HK:3699 Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Co. Ltd. (HKG)
Thursday 23 April 2015
Argentina Stocks --2017?
Argentine oil company YPF S.A. ADS (NYSE)
.gif)
Argentina president Kirchner cosies up to Putin in Moscow as they agree military deal--http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/572399/Cristina-Fernandez-de-Kirchner-Vladimir-Putin-Moscow-deals
The Russian energy giant Gazprom is expected to agree a deal to make energy investments in the South American country with Argentine oil company YPF.
YPF, acronym for Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales ; English: "Treasury Petroleum Fields
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YPF
renationalization on May 5, 2012-
Bazi Astro
男、出生2012-05-05--壬辰,乙巳,丙寅-2016寅申巳刑-2017丁酉合壬辰--
CEO-Miguel Matías Galuccio ( April 23, 1968)-
Bazi Astro
男、出生1968-04-23 戊申,丙辰,癸亥--2012/22辛酉-2017丁酉
I wonder if there will still be one more bearish mood before Argentina stocks/market really surge
Wednesday 22 April 2015
Re-Thomas Hoenig: Relax Dodd-Frank
Source-Macroprudential Regulation: Costs and Benefits -Apr 22 Comment Well Fargo
Thomas Hoenig, president of the FDIC, has recently proposed that some provisions of Dodd-Frank be relaxed for well-capitalized banks that do not engage in certain activities that are deemed to carry systemic risks.
Chin Bazi astro
Thomas M. Hoenig (1946-9-6)
生於 1946年9月6日,
日 月 年
癸 丙 丙
未 申 戌
大運2007/17癸卯
2016 丙申=月柱
2017 丁酉沖大運2007/17癸卯
Wild Guess-beware of adversity with US banking risk and supervision by 2016/17
Thomas Hoenig, president of the FDIC, has recently proposed that some provisions of Dodd-Frank be relaxed for well-capitalized banks that do not engage in certain activities that are deemed to carry systemic risks.
Chin Bazi astro
Thomas M. Hoenig (1946-9-6)
生於 1946年9月6日,
日 月 年
癸 丙 丙
未 申 戌
大運2007/17癸卯
2016 丙申=月柱
2017 丁酉沖大運2007/17癸卯
Wild Guess-beware of adversity with US banking risk and supervision by 2016/17
Tuesday 21 April 2015
Re-5 Big Trends For The Next 10 Years by Steve Burns
Source-
Steve Burns twitter@SJoseph Burns
http://www.newtraderu.com/2015/04/20/5-big-trends-next-10-years/
Here are some charts
#1. Megacities--TAO-Guggenheim China Real Estate ETF
.gif)
#2. Wind Power--Vestas Wind Systems ($VWS.CO).
.gif)
#3. Carbon Nanotechnologies-FES
.gif)
#4. Biological Warfare--Lakeland Industries ($LAKE)
.gif)
#5. Robotic Medicine-- Intuitive Surgical Inc. ($ISRG)
.gif)
PS-
some robotics stocks
China--300024, 6000775,002009
USA-IRBT, ARAY, CGNX, FARO (source-Seeking Alpha Debra Borchardt 2015 Feb 10)
Steve Burns twitter@SJoseph Burns
http://www.newtraderu.com/2015/04/20/5-big-trends-next-10-years/
Here are some charts
#1. Megacities--TAO-Guggenheim China Real Estate ETF
.gif)
#2. Wind Power--Vestas Wind Systems ($VWS.CO).
.gif)
#3. Carbon Nanotechnologies-FES
.gif)
#4. Biological Warfare--Lakeland Industries ($LAKE)
.gif)
#5. Robotic Medicine-- Intuitive Surgical Inc. ($ISRG)
.gif)
PS-
some robotics stocks
China--300024, 6000775,002009
USA-IRBT, ARAY, CGNX, FARO (source-Seeking Alpha Debra Borchardt 2015 Feb 10)
Re-Risk Reversal 2015/4/21: Alibaba
Re-
http://www.riskreversal.com/2015/04/21/morningword-42115-bull-in-a-china-shop-jd/
(1)BABA-Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADS (NYSE)-Weekly
.gif)
Note rallied 4 wks and now has been declining for the 24/25week
Chinese陈斌-'s pivot counts dor a 4-wk rally
6,10,14,18,22,26
Now the 4th pivot-wild guess is about to rebouncey-shall see
(2) BABA vs JD ratio chart weekly
Note rallied 10 wks and now has been declining for the 24th week
Chinese陈斌- 's pivot counts dor a 10-wk rally
4,14,24,34
now the 3rd pivot-wild guess is about to rebounce
http://www.riskreversal.com/2015/04/21/morningword-42115-bull-in-a-china-shop-jd/
(1)BABA-Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADS (NYSE)-Weekly
.gif)
Note rallied 4 wks and now has been declining for the 24/25week
Chinese陈斌-'s pivot counts dor a 4-wk rally
6,10,14,18,22,26
Now the 4th pivot-wild guess is about to rebouncey-shall see
(2) BABA vs JD ratio chart weekly
Note rallied 10 wks and now has been declining for the 24th week
Chinese陈斌- 's pivot counts dor a 10-wk rally
4,14,24,34
now the 3rd pivot-wild guess is about to rebounce
Monday 20 April 2015
Re-Outlook for Week of April 20, 2015 by LunaticTrader
Outlook for Week of April 20, 2015 by LunaticTrader
http://www.slideshare.net/LunaticTrader/reversal-levels-47180113
Possible Bottom Out??
Gold, EURUSD, Wheat, Oil, Turkey Index, Vietnam Index
Wheat Monthly
still struggling but about to bottom out?
.gif)
Oil Weekly
Proxy-HK:883 CNOOC Ltd
Rebounce down-turn bearish
.gif)
EURUSD monthly
.gif)
Gold
At least short-term bearish?
.gif)
Turkey Index
Interesting -XX:XBANK--Turkey Banks Index
.gif)
Vietnam Index
Proxy-HK:3087db x-trackers FTSE Vietnam ETF
.gif)
http://www.slideshare.net/LunaticTrader/reversal-levels-47180113
Possible Bottom Out??
Gold, EURUSD, Wheat, Oil, Turkey Index, Vietnam Index
Wheat Monthly
still struggling but about to bottom out?
.gif)
Oil Weekly
Proxy-HK:883 CNOOC Ltd
Rebounce down-turn bearish
.gif)
EURUSD monthly
.gif)
Gold
At least short-term bearish?
.gif)
Turkey Index
Interesting -XX:XBANK--Turkey Banks Index
.gif)
Vietnam Index
Proxy-HK:3087db x-trackers FTSE Vietnam ETF
.gif)
HK:HSCI vs CBOE:SKEW
RE-Forget the VIX, watch the SKEW by Danny, the Lunatic trader
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2015/04/20/forget-the-vix-watch-the-skew/
CBOE page
http://www.cboe.com/micro/skew/introduction.aspx
Bigcharts-4 month Daily
XX:SKEW-CBOE SKEW Index (INDEX)
compared to HK:HSCI
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2015/04/20/forget-the-vix-watch-the-skew/
CBOE page
http://www.cboe.com/micro/skew/introduction.aspx
Bigcharts-4 month Daily
XX:SKEW-CBOE SKEW Index (INDEX)
compared to HK:HSCI
Re-Four undiscussed dangers that could shackle the UK recovery
Four undiscussed dangers that could shackle the UK recovery
http://theconversation.com/four-undiscussed-dangers-that-could-shackle-the-uk-recovery-40132/
(1)Private debt
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLXX.L&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79294708556
(2)House prices
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IUKP.L&p=W&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p37454816693
(3)Current-account deficit
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GBPUSD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p85868625461
http://theconversation.com/four-undiscussed-dangers-that-could-shackle-the-uk-recovery-40132/
(1)Private debt
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLXX.L&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79294708556
(2)House prices
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IUKP.L&p=W&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p37454816693
(3)Current-account deficit
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GBPUSD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p85868625461
Friday 10 April 2015
Moon Aspects and Charts
Apr 13th
4+1+3=8
Moon Aspects and Void-of-Course Moon
Moon enters the sign of Aquarius at 4/12/2015 5:43 pm GMT(HKT-13th 0:43am)
Moon in Aqu 120 Venus in Gem on 4/12/2015 8:07 pm GMT(HKT-13th 3:07am)
Moon in Aqu 060 Saturn in Sag R on 4/13/2015 12:58 am GMT(HKT-13th 7:58pm)
Moon in Aqu 090 Mars in Tau on 4/13/2015 9:43 am GMT (HKT-13th4:43pm)
Moon in Aqu 180 Jupiter in Leo on 4/13/2015 3:14 pm GMT(HKT-13th 10:14pm)
Moon in Aqu 060 Uranus in Ari on 4/13/2015 10:22 pm GMT(HKT-14th 5:22am)
29 Mar /25 Oct 2015 - UK Daylight Saving Time
source-http://www.astrowin.org/astrology_scripts/moon_aspects.php
HK-Composite Index
HK-HSI vs Tel Aviv 100 Index
GBPUSD
.gif)
U.S. Dollar Index (ICE US) Jun 2015 (NYE)
.gif)
4+1+3=8
Moon Aspects and Void-of-Course Moon
Moon enters the sign of Aquarius at 4/12/2015 5:43 pm GMT(HKT-13th 0:43am)
Moon in Aqu 120 Venus in Gem on 4/12/2015 8:07 pm GMT(HKT-13th 3:07am)
Moon in Aqu 060 Saturn in Sag R on 4/13/2015 12:58 am GMT(HKT-13th 7:58pm)
Moon in Aqu 090 Mars in Tau on 4/13/2015 9:43 am GMT (HKT-13th4:43pm)
Moon in Aqu 180 Jupiter in Leo on 4/13/2015 3:14 pm GMT(HKT-13th 10:14pm)
Moon in Aqu 060 Uranus in Ari on 4/13/2015 10:22 pm GMT(HKT-14th 5:22am)
29 Mar /25 Oct 2015 - UK Daylight Saving Time
source-http://www.astrowin.org/astrology_scripts/moon_aspects.php
HK-Composite Index
HK-HSI vs Tel Aviv 100 Index
GBPUSD
.gif)
U.S. Dollar Index (ICE US) Jun 2015 (NYE)
.gif)
Thursday 9 April 2015
Re-Sir分析蕭才子的八字
Copy and paste first-
李應聰【史Sir】風水命理玄學服務
April 6 at 5:53am ·
source-https://www.facebook.com/lifelements
"也來談談蕭才子的八字分析：
蕭生八字，1949-07-22 亥時
比 日 卩 殺
癸 癸 辛 己
亥 丑 未 丑
甲壬 癸辛己 乙丁己 癸辛己
傷劫 比卩殺 食才殺 比卩殺
７６ ６６ ５６ ４６ ３６ ２６ １６ ６
癸 甲 乙 丙 丁 戊 己 庚
亥 子 丑 寅 卯 辰 巳 午
２４ １４ ０４ ９４ ８４ ７４ ６４ ５４
拆局取用神：
癸水生於季夏，火土同旺之時令也．年干己土七殺掛角透出，地支丑未丑土沖越旺原可畏，喜其月干辛金透出，化殺生身，格取殺印相生．更妙時支臨亥，亥未拱卯，地支隱含食神制殺．
蕭生在訪問中說，八字古籍中，滴天髓及窮通寶鑑對此命造各有各說法，一者說喜火土，另一者說喜金水云云．．．此皆未讀通古籍也．蓋因滴天髓以格局氣勢為重點，寶鑑則專談十干在不同時令的最佳配置，非兩者說法不同，實乃此兩書本非教科書，祇談原則而已．
八字格局法中，以子平真詮述說較淺白易懂，殺格宜制．然此命中，癸水在未月至弱，得一辛金化殺生身，此乃原局組合，用印成殺印相生當無置疑．然地支組合隱含食神制殺，故他的口才文思及創作思維亦甚佳．殺印相生主異路功名，用印者愛讀書，食神制殺有文釆亦聰明，這些特式皆能從蕭生八字中看出．
癸水在夏天最佳配置為辛金（窮通寶鑑），此命辛金在月干父母宮，故因屋企而有億萬身家．
丁卯運，大運食傷生財，幸大運天干丁火生己土而不傷辛金，地支亥卯未木局合成食神制殺，此運身家最多數十億，其間炒樓炒股亦大賺，乃一生最風光之運也．
運至丙寅，丙丁雖同為火而陰陽性質不同，丙火坐長生尅合掉辛金用神，財來破印，故此運不論股票及上市公司，也因遇上科網股爆破，身家由數十億身家跌剩數千萬．尤幸寅亥合木仍能制殺，故此運雖敗而仍能爛船也有三根釘．
註：事實上，此命由蕭生的個人特質能力，及行運的起跌，用格局法取用神來批，皆能絲絲入扣，並非八字不可信，實乃坊間流傳者，硬將八字起跌作兩分法，不分陰陽又不理格局之所需，以為用金就不能走木火運，才令蕭生以為八字不可靠，枉廢了他曾研究多年，其可惜乎！"
Ding-Fire-168--some naive deduction--
Note-丙火坐長生尅合掉辛金用神，財來破印---
2016丙申????
股市會衝到三萬點？〈蕭遙遊〉2015-04-09 a
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdtqp2U2EOo
Note-
Shemittah year Solar eclipse
Beware around Sep 13, 2015
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpZrhCfcxAg
4 Blood Moon Tetrad
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TG5pC5bn3w
李應聰【史Sir】風水命理玄學服務
April 6 at 5:53am ·
source-https://www.facebook.com/lifelements
"也來談談蕭才子的八字分析：
蕭生八字，1949-07-22 亥時
比 日 卩 殺
癸 癸 辛 己
亥 丑 未 丑
甲壬 癸辛己 乙丁己 癸辛己
傷劫 比卩殺 食才殺 比卩殺
７６ ６６ ５６ ４６ ３６ ２６ １６ ６
癸 甲 乙 丙 丁 戊 己 庚
亥 子 丑 寅 卯 辰 巳 午
２４ １４ ０４ ９４ ８４ ７４ ６４ ５４
拆局取用神：
癸水生於季夏，火土同旺之時令也．年干己土七殺掛角透出，地支丑未丑土沖越旺原可畏，喜其月干辛金透出，化殺生身，格取殺印相生．更妙時支臨亥，亥未拱卯，地支隱含食神制殺．
蕭生在訪問中說，八字古籍中，滴天髓及窮通寶鑑對此命造各有各說法，一者說喜火土，另一者說喜金水云云．．．此皆未讀通古籍也．蓋因滴天髓以格局氣勢為重點，寶鑑則專談十干在不同時令的最佳配置，非兩者說法不同，實乃此兩書本非教科書，祇談原則而已．
八字格局法中，以子平真詮述說較淺白易懂，殺格宜制．然此命中，癸水在未月至弱，得一辛金化殺生身，此乃原局組合，用印成殺印相生當無置疑．然地支組合隱含食神制殺，故他的口才文思及創作思維亦甚佳．殺印相生主異路功名，用印者愛讀書，食神制殺有文釆亦聰明，這些特式皆能從蕭生八字中看出．
癸水在夏天最佳配置為辛金（窮通寶鑑），此命辛金在月干父母宮，故因屋企而有億萬身家．
丁卯運，大運食傷生財，幸大運天干丁火生己土而不傷辛金，地支亥卯未木局合成食神制殺，此運身家最多數十億，其間炒樓炒股亦大賺，乃一生最風光之運也．
運至丙寅，丙丁雖同為火而陰陽性質不同，丙火坐長生尅合掉辛金用神，財來破印，故此運不論股票及上市公司，也因遇上科網股爆破，身家由數十億身家跌剩數千萬．尤幸寅亥合木仍能制殺，故此運雖敗而仍能爛船也有三根釘．
註：事實上，此命由蕭生的個人特質能力，及行運的起跌，用格局法取用神來批，皆能絲絲入扣，並非八字不可信，實乃坊間流傳者，硬將八字起跌作兩分法，不分陰陽又不理格局之所需，以為用金就不能走木火運，才令蕭生以為八字不可靠，枉廢了他曾研究多年，其可惜乎！"
Ding-Fire-168--some naive deduction--
Note-丙火坐長生尅合掉辛金用神，財來破印---
2016丙申????
股市會衝到三萬點？〈蕭遙遊〉2015-04-09 a
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdtqp2U2EOo
Note-
Shemittah year Solar eclipse
Beware around Sep 13, 2015
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpZrhCfcxAg
4 Blood Moon Tetrad
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TG5pC5bn3w
Thursday 2 April 2015
Private Debt Crisis?
Private Debt Crisis?
James H. Nolt's article
(author of International Political Economy: The Business of War and Peace)
http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2015/04/02/bull-magic
MasterCard Incorporated ( MA)
1966 - 12 - 16
Chinese Bazi Astro-
丙午-庚子-己酉日-2013/23運乙巳--2015七殺運七殺年
2015 a critical yr?
Visa Inc (V)
2007-5-25
Chinese Bazi Astro-
丁亥-乙巳-己未日---乙月未日
2015乙未-
2015 a critical year?
James H. Nolt's article
(author of International Political Economy: The Business of War and Peace)
http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2015/04/02/bull-magic
MasterCard Incorporated ( MA)
1966 - 12 - 16
Chinese Bazi Astro-
丙午-庚子-己酉日-2013/23運乙巳--2015七殺運七殺年
2015 a critical yr?
Visa Inc (V)
2007-5-25
Chinese Bazi Astro-
丁亥-乙巳-己未日---乙月未日
2015乙未-
2015 a critical year?
Re-Donovan's Bearish Confirmation
Donovan's update
"Worldwide financial markets are executing the following basic technical structures:
+ Long term: Transition to Bear Markets
+ Mid term: Sideways with high probability of topping out: Bearish Bias.
+ Short term: Downtrend"
http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/2015/03/funds-flow-analysis-ffa-31-march-2015.html "
My finding-
XX:SXW1STOXX Global 1800 Index USD (INDEX)
.gif)
"Worldwide financial markets are executing the following basic technical structures:
+ Long term: Transition to Bear Markets
+ Mid term: Sideways with high probability of topping out: Bearish Bias.
+ Short term: Downtrend"
http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/2015/03/funds-flow-analysis-ffa-31-march-2015.html "
My finding-
XX:SXW1STOXX Global 1800 Index USD (INDEX)
.gif)
Re-Road to Nowhere: Hong Kong's Democratisation and China's Obligations Under Public International Law
The article-
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2428220
The author-
http://ayhcheung.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Website-CV.pdf
The author's podcast with World Policy On Air
http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2015/03/27/world-policy-air-ep-8-hong-kong-crossroads
His twitter
https://twitter.com/ayhcheung
The American scholar whom the author was a research associate with
https://its.law.nyu.edu/facultyprofiles/profile.cfm?section=presentations&personID=25449
A group the author joins
https://www.facebook.com/proglawgroup/timeline
Wenweipo 's coverage on this group-
http://paper.wenweipo.com/2015/02/07/PL1502070003.htm
http://paper.wenweipo.com/2015/02/02/HS1502020022.htm
Apple Daily's coverage on this group
http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/news/art/20150128/19019455
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2428220
The author-
http://ayhcheung.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Website-CV.pdf
The author's podcast with World Policy On Air
http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2015/03/27/world-policy-air-ep-8-hong-kong-crossroads
His twitter
https://twitter.com/ayhcheung
The American scholar whom the author was a research associate with
https://its.law.nyu.edu/facultyprofiles/profile.cfm?section=presentations&personID=25449
A group the author joins
https://www.facebook.com/proglawgroup/timeline
Wenweipo 's coverage on this group-
http://paper.wenweipo.com/2015/02/07/PL1502070003.htm
http://paper.wenweipo.com/2015/02/02/HS1502020022.htm
Apple Daily's coverage on this group
http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/news/art/20150128/19019455
TheGOP's RNC is getting ready for Hillary
The RNC is getting ready for Hillary By Jose A. DelReal,WP
The Republican National Committee has already made crippling Hillary Clinton's likely 2016 bid for the White House its top priority -- before the former secretary of state, or any other Democrat, has even entered the race
Reince Priebus
Born: March 18, 1972
壬子-戊申-丙子日
大運2010/20 壬子
2015 good正印乙未傷官
2016丙申 critical申月丙日生
2017very critical
Reince Priebus was elected Chairman of the Republican National Committee on January 14, 2011,
Sharon Day was elected Co-Chair of the Republican National Committee on January 14, 2011
January 14, 2011
年庚寅--2016丙申沖
Wild Guess-GOP"S RNC should better get the Nail-Hillary campaign done in 2015
The Republican National Committee has already made crippling Hillary Clinton's likely 2016 bid for the White House its top priority -- before the former secretary of state, or any other Democrat, has even entered the race
Reince Priebus
Born: March 18, 1972
壬子-戊申-丙子日
大運2010/20 壬子
2015 good正印乙未傷官
2016丙申 critical申月丙日生
2017very critical
Reince Priebus was elected Chairman of the Republican National Committee on January 14, 2011,
Sharon Day was elected Co-Chair of the Republican National Committee on January 14, 2011
January 14, 2011
年庚寅--2016丙申沖
Wild Guess-GOP"S RNC should better get the Nail-Hillary campaign done in 2015
Wireless Power: CN/HK-ZTE vs NYSE-VZ
A group of companies including Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK ), Verizon Communications, Inc. (NYSE: VZ ), Leggett & Platt, Inc. (NYSE: LEG ) and Texas Instruments, Inc. (NYSE: TXN ) have joined forces as part of the Wireless Power Consortium , backing a standardized platform known as Qi, which is crucial for a WPT eco-system to truly evolve.
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/these-companies-will-revolutionize-the-electronics-inudstry-with-wireless-technology-cm392897#ixzz3WCTvFppn
Leggett & Platt, Inc. (NYSE: LEG )
.gif)
Leggett & Platt, Incorporated, incorporated on February 23, 1901
Verizon Communications, Inc. (NYSE: VZ )
Verizon Communications Inc. (Verizon), incorporated on October 7, 1983
Chinese zi-wei astro--2015 good?
2015 田宅天機大運流年2化祿、天梁大運流年2化權
HK-listed company 763.hk/SZ-000063.SZ
ZTE Corp中兴通讯股份有限公司
(http://tele.ofweek.com/2015-04/ART-8320501-8120-28945226.html)
763.HK
.gif)
SZ-000063.SZ
.gif)
ley person集团主席：侯为贵--侯Hou--申猴 is 2016
founding date成立日期 1997-11-11
Chinese zi-wei astro
seems less good-will see
广东省深圳市南山区高新技术产业园科技南路中兴通讯大厦
Shenzhen Bay後海灣/深圳灣 is in SE--some reservation??
Time will tell
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/these-companies-will-revolutionize-the-electronics-inudstry-with-wireless-technology-cm392897#ixzz3WCTvFppn
Leggett & Platt, Inc. (NYSE: LEG )
.gif)
Leggett & Platt, Incorporated, incorporated on February 23, 1901
Verizon Communications, Inc. (NYSE: VZ )
Verizon Communications Inc. (Verizon), incorporated on October 7, 1983
Chinese zi-wei astro--2015 good?
2015 田宅天機大運流年2化祿、天梁大運流年2化權
HK-listed company 763.hk/SZ-000063.SZ
ZTE Corp中兴通讯股份有限公司
(http://tele.ofweek.com/2015-04/ART-8320501-8120-28945226.html)
763.HK
.gif)
SZ-000063.SZ
.gif)
ley person集团主席：侯为贵--侯Hou--申猴 is 2016
founding date成立日期 1997-11-11
Chinese zi-wei astro
seems less good-will see
广东省深圳市南山区高新技术产业园科技南路中兴通讯大厦
Shenzhen Bay後海灣/深圳灣 is in SE--some reservation??
Time will tell
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