"There is GOING to be a Santa Claus rally. There always is a Santa Claus rally which is due any time after Thanksgiving. My worry is what happens to the market on January 2nd. If I'm a politician, I don't want to get blamed for a recession. We are already the beneficiary of a surprise storm that is going to hit GDP to the tune of about a half a percent. Nobody saw that coming. So do they really want to add injury to insult this year? They need a good Christmas shopping season just to make up for the Sandy losses. So they are going to throw the US economy over the cliff as well? I just don't see it. What I do see is this constant drip, drip, drip by the media which up to Tuesday didn't yet resonate with options players. But the dynamic changed on Wednesday when the VIX finally had a healthy rise as all of this constant barrage by the media is taking its toll. Then you have the situation in Israel. I'm told by good sources that Netanyahu just couldn't take it anymore. Why now? The US election is over, but one is coming in Israel but Hamas is constantly firing rockets every single day into Southern Israel. So they hit them back. Egypt supposedly tried to issue an ultimatum to stop the fighting. All of this is very unfortunate and what it will do is help spike the fear gauges.
Today was more of the same. I am just concerned for the longer term buyers from 2009. If I'm one of them, I'm starting to get restless as the Dow is starting toapproach the Andrews channel line that holds up the entire bull market. Want to know what will spike the fear? A break of that trend line. So at the end of the day, the VIXis getting up there and we are going to have the seasonals working in our favor soon and the cycles are hard down right now because they are going to wind down so we can have Santa interrupt all of this pretty soon."
Porky's Wild Guess---Thanksgiving 2012(Nov 22 )--X' Mas (Dec 25)
Santa Claus Rally ??
VT
Vanguard Total World Stock ETF
No comments:
Post a Comment