梁業豪- "好友應增強防守意識
日線圖STC呈現嚴重超買多時的現象告訴我們，港股正在找尋短期升浪頂。待升浪頂出現後，大市可以錄得很大的調整幅度，問題只在於現水平之上仍有多大的再升空間而已。可以肯定的，是好友會於預期只屬有限的時間內，努力將港股推上更高的水平；然而，大家應於升浪持續發展的時候，逐漸增強防守意識，隨時準備退出好友陣營。"
Porky-a black HSI candle today indeed
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文少伯 Soberman says"--日本央行於昨日突然宣布把利率由0.1%降至0 - 0.1%之間，並成立一個5萬億日圓的基金，計劃購買私營及公營資產，以希望推動經濟增長。令人訝異不止日本的舉動，昨日澳洲央行亦決定不加息，維持利率4.5%，理由是通脹放緩。美國經濟仍然不濟，失業率居高不下，再加上歐洲和日本正在墮入流動性陷阱中仍然不顧後果的印銀紙，美國聯儲局也不得不傻鬥傻的加入混戰再推第二輪量化寬鬆政策。美國將於本周五公布就業數據，令人失望的結果相信將會是推出QE2的催化劑。投資者要留意韓國、泰國、印度、巴西、哥倫比亞等央行已相繼推出各種措施以干預匯率或限制投機熱錢流入，但仍未見香港金管局推出任何防範措施。"(流動性陷阱http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/sober-man)
Porky--Even my wash for mouth feed is getting expensive
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The Pragmatic Capitalist ( Oct. 6, 2010) says
"88% Of All NYSE Stocks Are Now Overbought"
-" As of Oct 5 close 88% of all stocks traded on the NYSE were above their 50 day moving average. We have seen these levels just twice in 2010.
(1)In early June the % of NYSE stocks above their 50 day moving average reached 86.27%. In the ensuing month stocks sold off 8.5%.
(2)In April the % of stocks above their 50 day moving average reached 88.8% – just a tad higher than yesterday’s closing level of 88.11%. We all know what followed in May"
($NYA50R chart in stockcharts.com)
Porky-again the Oct 8 and 12 are key dates
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The US Equities Bear Rally according to www.peaktheories.com runs as follows-
"For that remains the problem at the heart of the matter, in my opinion, or the swamp of slow-moving money that was born of the Fed’s
extraordinary liquidity actions taken over the last two years in the face of tremendous economic slack.--- today’s velocity of money (nominal GDP/M2) is equal to a (very low )level last seen in the mid-1980s---If the Fed can solve this problem temporarily as was done between the fourth quarter of 2003 and the second quarter of 2006, we may be looking
at a much better and a much longer bear market rally than most people are anticipating."
"1-year USD chart is even more interesting in the fact it appears be showing us a larger and somewhat awkward Descending Triangle with a
measuring implication that brings the dollar index rather precisely to its best level of support of 72 found on the 3-year chart
" SP 500 confirmed Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern in the S&P 500-neckline 1131 and target 1250"
Porky-and after the bear Rally???
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According to Michael Pettis’ "What happens if the RMB is forced to revalue?"--"probably Beijing will do the same thing Tokyo did after the Plaza Accords and Beijing did after the renminbi began appreciating in 2005. It will lower real interest rates and force credit expansion.---But there will be a hidden cost to this strategy – perhaps a huge one. The revaluing renminbi will shift income from exporters to households, as it should, but cheaper financing costs will shift income from households (who provide most of the country’s net savings) to the large companies that have access to bank credit---It will fuel even more real estate, manufacturing and infrastructure overcapacity without having rebalanced consumption. Expect, for example, even more ships, steel, and chemicals in a world that really does not want any more."
Porky-A stocks will look good then??
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Re-Some Markets Are Now Set To Win No Matter What Happens
(http://www.businessinsider.com)
"The idea is that easy monetary policy in developed nations can spill over into other (Asian)nations, inflating asset prices and strengthening local currencies against the U.S. dollar. Yet at the same time, very strong economic data, the one thing that could cause central bankers to abort their current path, would also be great news for Asian markets given that it would signal stronger than expected global growth. It's as if some markets are set to win either way the coin falls... which is unsettling.
Porky- Remember they used to talk about "white man's burden" HaHa
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Dow and Berg Timer (http://www.justgoodtiming.com")
BT forecasts- "It looks like we're in for a rebound in 2010 but BT then declines again and stays low for FOUR years. A double-dip recession? BT doesn't recover until 2015 so don't expect sustained market strength until then. Beware of false optimism in 2010."
Porky-When all race to the bottom, impossible is nothing
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Four Pillars Finance
Chinese astrology cycles for market timing
Four Pillars Finance says "Next projected lows in our cycles are coming February-March" Danny (with 4 Pillars Finance) and Porky hold similar views
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"Lunatic Trader-Trading with the Moon" poses a question for SP 5000-"how much is left in the tank here?" The chart points to about mid Oct
and Porky's last posts quoted the dates of 8 and 12 Oct
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kurich的博客 (http://blog.ifeng.com/2618596.html)
冥王星逆行經過銀河中心點-2010-02-09 "在金融占星學中，銀河中心點(射手座26度50分)是一個重要的研究範疇。當行星途經此點而且是逆行的時候，往往在某些金融市場之中，捲起滔天大浪。金圓券發行正巧是木星逆行通過銀河中心點前夕，1948年4月15日從射手座29度開始逆行到1948年8月15日的19度，而且1949年2月天王星也在雙子座180度角對沖銀河中心點。--而這一次冥王星與銀河中心點合相期間為2007年7月23日~10月23日，又正巧與次貸風暴所引發的全球金融海嘯時間點驚人地吻合。而且2007年3月底至9月初，冥王星正巧也是逆行
世運占星學（Mundane astrology）之中冥王星代表債務、保險及財閥"
an interesting article comparing 1848 Old Shanghai KMT Gold Yuan Youcher to the present Fed/Greenbacks from an astrology perspective(Galaxic Center
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Guess all have forgotten who he is
Jérôme Kerviel -Rogue Trader at Société Générale Gets 3 Years (NYT)
Jérôme Kerviel (born 11 January 1977
日 月 年
戊 辛 丙
辰 丑 辰
2004 → 2014 甲辰
2010 庚寅
甲=庚=七殺
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Porky's disclaimer-
Of course--「市場玄學」係mystic, esoteric religion而唔係有效嘅trading methodology-
(quote 竹本疋虫 Bro)
Reminder-：一盲引眾盲，相將入火炕
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