-very good stuff-"十八區新盤巡禮──未來幾年發展商住宅計劃(2010/10/03)"(股海窮庭http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/tokuhon_blog)
Porky likes the 股海窮庭 motto-"只有你自己，才能令你脫苦海 "
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The US market To-Nite
"October 7 is a Super New Moon (the Moon is at perigee or closest to the earth) at 14 Libra at 2:44 p.m. EDT Washington D.C."
"October 8 Venus Retrograde at 13 Scorpio"
(http://astrologicalinvesting.com/html/newsletter.html)
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Re-竹本疋虫bro絮語on Gold:
"What does this all mean? Well, it only means that, if we were not watchful of the lunacy of the Fed and Donald Tsang, our families and livelihoods are simply getting screwed each day with pleasure...What else do we reasonably expect, except 溫水煮蛙?
田雞過河，各有各 “young”，自己小心 goo goo。"
Porky finds the info below
"Recently, Black Swan thinker Nassim Nicholas Taleb said, “The Fed won’t exist in 25 years. Then, MarketWatch columnist Paul Farrell followed with a more imminent vision:
-Wall Street banks control the Federal Reserve system, it’s their personal piggy bank. They’ve already done so much damage, yet have more control than ever. Warning: That’s a set-up. They will eventually destroy capitalism, democracy, and the dollar’s global reserve-currency status. They will self-destruct before 2035 … maybe as early as 2012 … most likely by 2020.”
(http://seekingalpha.com/article/228863-when-will-the-old-economic-story-end?source=feed)
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RE-K角切--麒麟王-關鍵是美元(http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/fred-lau/)
Porky- food for thought
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Re-S&P 500 - October 6, 2010 -Is TED waking up?
(http://markettime.blogspot.com)
Porky has done a 3-yr daily chart. It seemms once Fed bends up ,SP500 will start to fall either in the same month or one month later
(http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TED&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64730236821)
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Re-Attention Government Bond Buyers: Japan Has Changed the Rules of the Game by Brian Kelly in SeekingAlpha.com
"The game changer was the de facto elimination of the so-called “banknote rule”. This rule prohibited the BoJ from buying more debt than banknotes in circulation, thus preventing the BoJ from monetizing the country’s enormous debt. Once the BoJ announced that the new QE fund would not be subject to the banknote rule, it is effectively allowing debt monetization.
"(Japan's new sovereign wealth fund)The BoJ, and the U.S. Fed, are making the wager that the buyers and holders of their debt must continue to buy or risk multiple asset class collapse. Typical sovereign debt buyers are pension funds, insurance companies and other sovereign nations – all have a vested interest in keeping asset prices high. For example, under the current policy of government support of asset prices, a pension fund must continue to buy sovereign debt if it wants its stock portfolio to remain elevated.
Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Governments are betting that they hold all the cards and debt will continue to be bought…because it must be bought. "
Porky-again 竹本疋虫bro絮語:"田雞過河，各有各 “young”，自己小心 goo goo。"
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Re-上证指数螺旋历法时间窗口探讨（续篇之六）续聊
http://bbs.dingdi.com/viewthread.php?tid=1372275
"螺旋立法--除了10月8日外，可推迟时间密集点是10月18日（一）和10月22日（五）（都是正负一个交易日）
鲁卡斯法--除了10月8日外，可推迟时间密集点是10月18日（一）和10月22日（五）（都是正负一个交易日）
Porky-compare this with US Spiral Dates
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Jim Rogers: This Weekend at the Mises Institute
posted by Robert Wenzel at EconomicPolicyJournal.com
Jim Rogers will be at this weekend's Supporters Summit at the Ludwig von Mises Institute in Auburn, Alabama
Porky- My understanding of Von Mises' theory is there will be a PRICE to pay after QEs--due Mar 2011??
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Re-First the rate reductions, then money printing, then the currency war, then the tariffs, then….posted by Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns -
Porky- May be we need a War at the end
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Re-One Fed To Monetize Them All by Tyler Durden (zero-hedge)
" Morgan Stanley's David Greenlaw has confirmed that QE2, launching in less than one month, will mean outright monetization of US debt, --, the Fed would be absorbing virtually all of the net new Treasury issuance as long as they maintained this pace of purchases." --pretty soon the Fed will be the only holder left of Treasuries with a maturity over 10 years: -- The great benefit of monetizing it all, is that the Treasury will be paying all remnant high coupons to the Fed.--
Porky-自己打龍通
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Fed Officials Mull Inflation as a Fix
"But as the U.S. economy struggles and flirts with the prospect of deflation, some central bank officials New York Fed William Dudley and Chicago Fed Charles Evans are publicly broaching a controversial idea: lifting inflation above the Fed's informal target"
(http://online.wsj.com)
Porky-The astrology of Fed doesn't look good
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Re-Pictures of Deflation by Christopher Whalen
American Enterprise Institute-October 6, 2010
"Is the Subprime Crisis Over? No---Non‐payment by borrowers and mounting foreclosure backlogs are creating the conditions for the collapse of some of the largest U.S. banks in 2011.--"
(http://www.rcwhalen.com/pdf/aei_1010.pdf)
Porky-Again, enjoy the party while it lasts
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Re-股份爆升 認股權行使潮即現(經濟日報)2010年10月7日
"---不少上市公司大股東已輪流配售舊股套現。同樣地，近日亦不時見到有上市公司的僱員及董事，密密行使認股權。翻查近日港交所 上市公司通告，翌日披露報表出現次數頻密，當中很多都涉及行使購股權，部分董事購股權的行使價，更較現價折讓極大，認真令人羨慕。"
Porky-Smart $$$ stays ahead of the curve??
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Re-Current Treasury Yield Snapshot: Anxiety Increases (http://dshort.com)
"an overlay of the CBOE Interest Rate 10-Year Treasury Note (TNX) and the S&P 500. -yields tending to lead changes in direction"
"10-year yields have fallen dramatically since the 2010 high of 3.99 set on April 5th, three weeks before the S&P 500 2010 peak on April 23rd. They had rebounded since the 2.48 close on August 31. But the last few weeks have seen a significant decline. "
Porky--One cannot wrap up fire with paper
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Re-炒落後(偉哥投資手札 Oct 7)" 內房是政策重點打壓的板塊，故內房股及受此拖累的內銀股長期跑輸大市是可以理解，但內房股及內銀股近日跑羸大市，是因為市場見到政策有機會改變，還是因為資金已飢不擇食，很難啃得落的豬頭骨也想吞落下？答案很明顯是後者。大市成交日升，今日更突破千億元大關，相信有很多新資金加入市場尋寶，市場氣氛熾熱；加上炒無可炒，連長期大落後的板塊也有資金追捧，令自己更相信大市見頂在即，隨後的調整應該是既快且深。"
Porky- will tell soon
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Re-"Found: A Model For Pricing Gold "by
Eddy Elfenbein, Crossing Wall Street -
"Whenever the dollar’s real short-term interest rate is below 2%, gold rallies. Whenever the real short rate is above 2%, the price of gold falls.
Gold holds steady at the equilibrium rate of 2%--every one percentage point real rates differ from 2%, gold moves by eight times that amount per year.
So if the real rates are at 1%, gold will move up at an 8% annualized rate. I
f real rates are at 0%, then gold will move up at a 16% rate (that’s been about the story for the past decade).
Conversely, if the real rate jumps to 3%, then gold will drop at an 8% rate.--
In effect, gold acts like a highly leverage short position in U.S. Treasury bills and the breakeven point is 2% (or more precisely, a short on short-term TIPs).
The first point isgold isn’t tied to inflation. It’s tied to low real rates which are often the by-product of inflation. Right now we have rising gold and low inflation. This isn’t a contradiction.
The second point is that when real rates are low, the price of gold can rise very, very rapidly.
The third is that when real rates are high, gold can fall very, very quickly.
Fourth, there’s no reason for there to be a relationship between equity prices and gold (like the Dow-to-gold ratio).
Fifth, the TIPs yield curve indicates that low real rates may last for a few more years.
The final point is that the price of gold is essentially political. If a central banker has the will to raise real rates as Volcker did 30 years ago, then the price of gold can be crushed.
Porky-Bamboo Bro should love this
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Porky's disclaimer-
Of course--「市場玄學」係mystic, esoteric religion而唔係有效嘅trading methodology-
(quote 竹本疋虫 Bro)
Reminder-：一盲引眾盲，相將入火炕
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