Friday 4 June 2010

3 Jun-12 Charts That Show Why This Bull Market Is FINISHED

Preety much like what we 've learned from Chao Sir and Law but still the material is revealing- The Bull Market is all over in the States, according to Joe Weisenthal , The Deputy Editor of The Business Insider
(http://www.businessinsider.com/the-bull-market-is-finished-2010-6)
(1)Based on just about every other bear market, this rally is getting long in the tooth.
1929-34.2 mths
1973-20.7mths
Tech crisis-30.5mths
This Financial Crisis-now only 17mths---

(2)Compared to the great bear market of the 30s, we're right on schedule for a fall

(3)By aligning this bear with the trough, we're due for a long grind sideways.

(4)Based on the Nikkei 1997-2000, Nasdaq is again, right on time for a big fall

(5)A further look at the 30s shows that the next stage is a long sideways grinding market.

(6)longer look at 1928-1942 again reveals the same pattern

(7)The shape of these last two years, compared to 37-39 is remarkably similar.


(8)The move from 1900-1925 is remarkably similar, with its long grind sideways

(9)Same with 1973-1982

(10)Meanwhile, volatility(VIX-New Methodology) has become elevated, meaning under tradition asset allocation models it's time to pare back

(11)Copper, a leading indicator for the market, has become very ugly


(12)The TED spread -- a measure of bank confidence -- continues to climb higher


Bonus-The recent rally in the 10-year is perfectly timed for another major stock market reversal.

If the NASDAQ is Nikkei redux, it's heading to 800.

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