汇改下一站?? Still Unhappy

諾貝爾經濟學獎得主Robert Mundell表示，中國重啟更具彈性的匯率政策，可能不利於全球與中國經濟的穩定。

哥倫比亞大學(Columbia University)教授Mundell今天在香港向記者指出，對中國和世界來說，維持人民幣匯率盯住美元的政策一直是「穩定的重要來源」。

FT says RMB surge could inflate lending cost and commodity prices

Chk my last post on Mundell 's destiny-He is not bad
汇改下一站
上海金融与法律研究院研究员聂日明：短期来看，中国应当恢复有管理的浮动汇率并逐步扩大浮动弹性。长期来看，汇改的核心其实是利率改革、要素价格改革

BlackSwan's View
theoretically speaking, the reasoning may be something like this:

1) Help reduce global market trade tensions; a trade war sinks all boats
2) Begin that process of making it cheaper for Chinese companies to import stuff
3) Start the process of weaning off the Western consumer by increasing relative domestic purchasing power of your own consumer
4) Make sure workers hankering for a pay raise understand the rising yuan is a pay raise
5) Continue to make yuan convertibility possible at the margins and reduce the need to mop up so much money domestically

The potential upshot of all this (China’s actions will ultimately speak louder than words):
1. Blunting of rising Chinese prices (reduced domestic liquidity and more control of own monetary policy)
2. Reduction in US Treasury market buying i.e. less recycling
3. Increase in imports and relatively more balanced trade
4. Reduction in “hot money” flow to China in hopes of a one-off big revaluation
5. Relative pressure valve for European currency depreciation
6. Maybe the risk aversion/risk appetite correlated world changes

日 月 年
庚 壬 庚
子 午 寅
THe last Saturday when China made the RMB news release was a day of clashes
子vs午 庚vs 寅

We shall see

Before RMB surge, they were unhappy
Now they are still unhappy